Will Obama's Bounce Hold?
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As President Obama continues to enjoy a small popularity boost two weeks after the bin Laden killing, The Daily Beast calculates which of his predecessors had the most meaningful bounces.
Two weeks after the American public learned that Osama bin Laden was killed by American forces, President Obama's approval rating surged to its highest level since the beginning of his term. The latest Associated Press poll puts his approval rating at 60 percent. But the question remains: will the bump be enough to fundamentally change the way the public views Obama?
The tenures of previous presidents offer anecdotal evidence, but The Daily Beast sought to compare the bounces peak-to-peak to clarify exactly which former leaders experienced the most severe and most lasting pops in popularity from a major event. From Harry Truman to George W. Bush, we analyzed the job approval curves for the last 11 presidents according to the period surrounding the most seminal event in their tenure as measured by public opinion. Using data from Gallup, we identified the apex for each administration then charted the change in approval ratings from the low within the preceding 12 months through the 12 months following the apex.
Gallery: Ranking the Presidential Approval Bounces
To rank the bounces in terms of severity and momentum?a measure of the importance of the event in the course of national and presidential history as well as the long-term perspective?we calculated the area under the curve for each president's bounce. For some leaders, the jump was large and lasting. For others, it was temporary and followed by a continuous decline that landed their approval ratings well beneath the pre-event low point.
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